MACRO VIEW
The perennial problem of predicting potential
Job Williams for The Federal Bank of San Francisco
Potential output—the maximum amount an economy can produce over the long run—is an important indicator of a country’s economic health and expectations for future growth. However, potential output can’t be observed directly. Monetary policymakers are well advised to account for the perennial problem of uncertainty surrounding these estimates in devising and carrying out policy strategies.
MICRO PERSPECTIVE
Will Amazon’s big buy pay off?
Barbara Kahn, Denise Dahlhoff and James Bailey for Knowledge@Wharton
Amazon’s $13.7 billion purchase of Whole Foods has stepped up competition in the supermarket sector, an industry already dancing on razor-thin margins. The online behemoth is known for making strategic business decisions that pay off in big ways. But will this foray into brick-and-mortar grocery stores be as spectacularly successful as the company’s other endeavors?
ON A LIGHTER NOTE
The case of the fake billionaire
Dan Alexander for Forbes
Forbes had listed the net worth of Wilbur Ross Jr. at $2.9 billion, a number Ross claimed was far too low: He maintained he was closer to $3.7 billion. An examination of the financial-disclosure forms he filed after his nomination to President Donald Trump's Cabinet showed less than $700 million in assets.
Q&A
An investment great explains his portfolio strategy
KelloggInsight
Lou Simpson has been called “one of the investment greats” by none other than Berkshire Chairman and legendary investor Warren Buffett. Here’s a brief chat with the former chief investment officer for Geico—a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary—and current Chairman of SQ Advisors.
INSIGHTS
Isaac Newton learned about financial gravity the hard way
Jason Zweig for Wall Street Journal
Amid the South Sea bubble, the famed scientist shifted from being a prudent investor to a speculator who plunged essentially all his capital into a single stock. Could it be that one of the most immortal scientists in history also one of the world’s most mortal investors?
INDIA SPECIFIC
A data-heavy look at the supplementary claims regarding demonetisation
James Wilson for Frontline
A year ago more than 80% of the cash in circulation was removed via demonetisation with the stated aim of combatting black money, counterfeit currency and terrorism. But the goals underwent a metamorphosis of sorts and the narrative turned into making India a digital economy and promoting a cashless way of life.
STOCK INVESTING
When to sell a stock: Technical vs Fundamental approach
Adam Sarhan for Chart Your Trade
Selling your stocks at the right time is arguably the most challenging part of trading. Worse, it is fraught with emotions. At times, one must exit at a loss. Other times, we sell to early. Then there is the pain of watching a winning trade turn into a loser because we fail to exit at all. Here’s how to avoid mistakes.
PERSPECTIVES
Trends and tail risks
Lewis Johnson for CWA Asset Management Group
Successful investing is a like a journey to a far-off destination. The goal is to arrive at your intended destination, safe and on-time. Any problem along the way, if it is severe enough, can keep you from a safe and timely arrival. in preparation for the journey, we need not only a map that we can use as a guide but also the tools to overcome the difficulties we may face.
